On March 31, the three major indexes of the us stock market closed down again, with the dow dropping more than 400 points. In the first quarter of this year, the global economy was hit hard by the new outbreak. Nearly 100 stock indexes fell more than 20%, and the U.S. stock market set a record of four circuit breakers in a month, with the dow Jones industrial average recording its worst first-quarter performance ever. The White House and congressional Democrats are preparing for a fourth round of economic stimulus despite President Donald trump's signing of a $2.2 trillion third stimulus bill on March 27, as a growing number of economists continue to warn that the U.S. economy could slip into a prolonged "sustained recession."


Us economy could fall into 'prolonged recession'


The escalating outbreak of a new pandemic finally prompted President trump to back away from his March 30 decision to lift the ban on businesses and people from traveling to fight the disease, and to retract his earlier comments that he wanted the U.S. economy to restart before Easter. On March 29th Mr Trump announced that the rule of keeping a social distance would be extended until April 30th. At a White House news conference on March 31, Mr Trump said the next two weeks would be "very, very painful" for the us, reminding americans to prepare for "tough days".


The United States currently has the highest number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the world. Dr. Deborah vilks, coordinator of the White House task force on novel coronavirus, also warned March 31 that the number of deaths from COVID 19 in the United States will jump significantly to between 100,000 and 240,000 in the coming months. 'there is no magic bullet, no magic vaccine or cure,' she said. All it takes is action.


The outbreak was accompanied by fears in the United States of an economic and food crisis.


In a webinar at the brookings institution in Washington on March 30, former federal reserve chair janet yellen said the U.S. economy was in a "steep decline" because of the new outbreak. A continued ban would lead to more layoffs and bankruptcies, potentially wreaking more havoc on the economy and plunging it into a prolonged "sustained recession." Ms yellen said the downturn was unlike any previous us recession and that it was difficult to predict how severe it would be, depending on how long the outbreak control measures lasted.


Yellen acknowledged that the fed's "open-ended" quantitative easing program and the $2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus bill signed by President trump last week were important and supportive for businesses and households. But many of those measures are temporary, and the U.S. needs to do more if the lull in economic activity drags on.


Stephen roach, a senior fellow at Yale university and former chief economist at Morgan Stanley, agrees that the outbreak will push the U.S. economy into its worst recession since world war ii and that "this is a downturn that's going to be hard to get out of."


In addition to the recession, the looming food crisis is also a concern. World food and agriculture organisation (fao) experts said yesterday that restrictions imposed by governments to ease the outbreak and panic-buying, Labour shortages and logistical challenges could lead to inadequate food production, higher prices and food protectionism at the government level. It expects disruptions to the global food supply chain to become apparent in April or may, and calls for targeted measures to keep the global supply chain alive and mitigate the impact on the entire food system.


The economic crisis and the food crisis are hard for Mr Trump to ignore as he elevates the twin pillars of economics and security. On March 30, as he announced the extension of the 30-day ban, trump called on every American citizen, family and business to help the government stop the spread of the virus. "these are critical 30 days," he said. We are putting everything on the line and these 30 days are very important because we have to get back to [normal]."


The White House is mulling a fourth stimulus package worth $600 billion


The extension of the ban shows that President trump has finally accepted the advice of experts and opted for "safety" over "economics" in the face of the danger of a worsening outbreak of COVID 19. But sources said the White House is aware that the third round of emergency economic assistance announced on March 27, already the largest stimulus package in U.S. history, may not be enough to jump-start the "heart of the American economy," which has ground to a halt because of the outbreak. The White House has begun talks with Democrats in congress on a fourth round of economic stimulus legislation that could be worth $600 billion, including more state aid and financial aid for the mortgage market and tourism.

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House speaker Nancy pelosi, the democratic leader, also said March 30 that the focus of the fourth round of stimulus legislation would be on economic recovery, and Democrats have begun gathering information and taking stock of what might be needed for another round of stimulus. Ms pelosi said many of the priorities for a fourth round of stimulus would come from the alternative stimulus proposed by Democrats last week.


On March 23, the third round economic bailout plan put forward by the republican in the senate blocked, house Democrats then throw out a $2.5 trillion alternative stimulus program, including to issuing $1500 in cash directly to each individual, the funding and interest-free loans of small businesses to provide a total of $500 billion, to the hospital, community health centres and government health project invested $150 billion, to the schools and universities to provide $60 billion funding and student debt relief, offered $4 billion to state state subsidies, and so on. However, many of the measures in the alternative stimulus plan were rejected by republicans and were not included in the third round of emergency economic assistance.


Pelosi also disclosed Thursday that the fourth round of stimulus legislation may consider measures, including eliminating the cap on tax cuts for states and local governments, increasing federal aid to states and local governments, and further direct cash grants to americans. She also said votes in the us elections in the coming months would have to be done by mail and that lawmakers would reassess Mr Trump's response to the crisis.