Mysteel (mysteel.com) recently released its annual report, reviewing the imported iron ore market in 2023 and looking ahead to the iron ore market conditions in 2024.
According to Mysteel's annual report, commodity prices denominated in US dollars continued to move down in 2023 due to the continued impact of global tightening monetary policy.The annual average price of iron ore in 2023 was USD 119.46/tonne, a year-on-year decrease of USD 0.6/tonne, and a decrease of USD 39.35/tonne compared with the average price of USD 158.81/tonne in 2021, which is the low point of the price in the past three years. Since rebounding in 2015, iron ore prices have entered a downward cycle after peaking in 2021.
China's steel exports reached a nearly seven-year high in 2023, with marginal volumes diverging on both the supply and demand sides of the iron ore market. In Mysteel annual report, since 2023 China's iron ore arrivals and iron ore demand year-on-year have maintained a large increment, especially the emergence of iron production as well as iron ore consumption of double-high situation, so the port iron ore stock levels overall lower than last year, the lowest inventory also went to the library to 108.456 million tons. Follow-up steel profits continue to improve, superimposed on the iron reached a record high, steel blast furnaces in the first round of production cuts continue to resume production, for the port dredging to carry goods also continue to increase the strength of port inventories continue to decrease; 2023 the fourth quarter of the majority of steel mills before the end of the year to carry out routine maintenance, in addition to with the margin of the steel mills profits weakened superimposed on the impact of environmental protection policy, the iron production downward, imported ore port inventories back to the increasing channel. . As of December 29, China's 45 ports imported ore port stockpiles 119.9173 million tons, than the high point of the year down 2008.8 million tons.
For the supply and demand situation of iron ore in 2024, Mysteel annual report gives several outlooks.
In terms of overseas demand, in 2024, the overseas market, part of the new production capacity of the production capacity and individual countries to improve production capacity, foreign iron ore demand or will rebound, in addition to direct reduction of iron according to the current growth rate is expected to continue to improve production, a comprehensive view of 2024 overseas pig iron and direct reduction of iron about 26 million tons, a total of 43 million tons of ore consumption.
In terms of iron ore supply, 2024 global iron ore production is expected to increase by 62 million tons, of which the domestic iron ore concentrate production in the old mine capacity of the resumption of production superimposed on the new capacity put into operation is expected to increase by 15 million tons, while overseas iron ore production is expected to be less than the level of its overall ore consumption, resulting in the spillover of overseas iron ore supply to the number of China's year-on-year reduction in the comprehensive expected China's imports of minerals as a whole increase of 4 million tons around.
In terms of China's domestic demand, 2024 from the perspective of the demand for finished products, the overall crude steel production demand is expected to decline by 3 million tons in 2024, in addition to the 2024 domestic steel mills in the blast furnace capacity replacement is expected to phase out the net pig iron production capacity of 6.12 million tons, while the consumption of scrap is expected to improve, the combined impact of domestic pig iron production is expected to decrease by about 8 million tons.
To sum up, Mysteel annual report that the global iron ore supply in the previous project put into production to continue to maintain the incremental support, the global demand for iron ore as a whole is stable, but the geographical differentiation began to reverse. Overseas countries still have room for growth in iron ore demand, especially in Southeast Asia and other countries with greater potential for iron ore demand, while China in the replacement of production capacity as well as scrap steel consumption to enhance the impact of iron ore demand is expected to decline. Comprehensive expected 2024 global iron ore overall surplus, iron ore annual average price center of gravity continue to move down.
